A tariff decision made 13,000 km away just sent shockwaves through India’s export engine. What looked like a routine monthly dip has now become one of the loudest warning signs for India’s manufacturing and global trade strategy.

In October 2025, India’s engineering exports to the US didn’t just decline — they collapsed. The numbers speak louder than headlines: $1.63B → $1.39B, a 14.5% year-on-year fall | Hit largely by reciprocal tariffs & revived Section 232 duties on steel, aluminium, and auto components | Source: EEPC India, based on official trade data

This wasn’t a blip. This was a structural tremor.

The Bigger Shock: India’s Engineering Exports Fell 16.71% Overall

Across all destinations, India exported just $9.37B worth of engineering goods in October — a 16.71% drop from 2024. And when you zoom in, the picture becomes even more alarming.

23 of 34 engineering export panels declined, including:

Aircraft & spacecraft → down 80%+
Ships, boats & floating structures → down 80%+
Metals and metal-based products → heavily hit by tariff-driven cost pressures

These declines point to something far deeper than demand fluctuations.
They show cracks in the backbone of India’s industrial supply chain.

Why This Drop Should Worry Every Manufacturer, Trader & Logistics Player

The United States is not “just another buyer.” It is India’s #1 market for engineering goods.
So when the US market shrinks or raises tariff walls, India’s factory towns feel the tremor instantly.

Factories across the country take the hit: Steel mills in Odisha & Jharkhand, Auto component clusters in Pune, Chennai & Gurugram, Machinery exporters across Gujarat, MSME hubs in Rajkot, Coimbatore, Jalandhar

A 14.5?cline here is not a statistic, it’s a wake-up call.

The Tariff Domino Effect: How It Broke the Flow

Section 232 tariffs, initially imposed for US “national security,” acted like a chokehold on Indian steel and auto-related shipments. Add India’s reciprocal duties, and you get a loop of trade friction. This loop breaks pricing, delays shipments, slows production, and forces exporters to renegotiate contracts overnight.
In logistics terms: one tariff fell, 34 export panels shook.

The 80% Crash: Why Aircraft & Ship Exports Imploded

Aircraft and ship exports are typically lumpy — one big order can swing the data.
But an 80%+ crash means much more:

Mega-contracts were postponed
Aerospace budgets tightened worldwide
Shipbuilding demand weakened
High-value capital goods faced global slowdown

In global trade, these segments act like “confidence indicators.”
When they fall, the world economy is nervous.

What This Means for 2026: The Strategic Shift India Cannot Ignore

If October 2025 taught exporters anything, it’s this: Only adaptive, diversified, tariff-proof supply chains will survive 2026.

India must now:

Pursue FTA-driven markets (UAE, EU, Australia)
Move away from overdependence on the US
Focus on high-value, advanced engineering
Build tariff resilience into pricing, sourcing & production

The world is entering a decade where policy will move faster than demand.
Exporters who adjust will lead. Those who wait will lose.

How Exim Transtrade India Helps Exporters Navigate This Turbulence

We don’t control tariffs.
But we help companies outsmart their impact.

Route Optimization: Choosing ports, carriers, and transit paths that reduce cost impact under tariff-heavy periods.

Duty Management: Helping exporters understand & plan for Section 232, reciprocal tariffs, anti-dumping duties, and new compliance norms.
Market Diversification Support: Assisting exporters in transitioning shipments toward FTA-friendly markets where tariffs are lower and demand is rising.
Risk-Proof Documentation: Ensuring error-free paperwork to avoid delays when tariff volatility already hits margins.
Real-Time Trade Intelligence: Tracking policy changes, tariff updates, and global demand shifts giving clients early alerts so they stay ahead.

We don’t just move cargo.
We move strategy, stability, and serious intelligence, especially when global trade shakes.

Data Sources

EEPC India – Monthly Engineering Export Report (Oct 2025)
DGFT Trade Data
Ministry of Commerce & Industry
US Section 232 Tariff Documentation